15 Years Since the End of the Space Shuttle: The Reality of NASA's Commercial Crew Program

As of July 26, 2026, it has been 15 years since the Space Shuttle last returned to Earth. According to a report by The Register’s Richard Speed, Space Shuttle Atlantis landed at Kennedy Space Center’s Shuttle Landing Facility on July 21, 2011, marking the end of NASA’s 30-year Space Shuttle program.

This milestone invites reflection on the success or failure of the commercial crew vehicles NASA chose to rely on in its aftermath.

Legacy of the Final Mission, STS-135

STS-135 was initially designated STS-335 as a “Launch On-Need” (LON) mission to stand by for STS-134 (Endeavour). After the disintegration of the Space Shuttle Columbia, the Shuttle program introduced LON missions, where one shuttle would stand ready to launch quickly to rescue the crew of another, should it suffer damage. Each LON mission was given an STS-3xx number, such as STS-317 for STS-116’s rescue and STS-318 for STS-117’s rescue. An exception was the Hubble Space Telescope servicing mission STS-125, which had STS-400 as its standby.

However, as the program’s end was decided, STS-135 had no LON mission assigned. The Shuttle program itself was winding down. If Atlantis had been unable to return safely, its crew would have had no option but to descend from the International Space Station (ISS) using Soyuz capsules. The crew for this mission was also limited to just four members—the smallest since Challenger’s STS-6 in 1983.

The crew was commanded by Christopher Ferguson, who later joined Boeing’s commercial crew program and was slated to fly on the Starliner but ultimately did not. The pilot, Douglas Hurley, went on to command SpaceX Crew Dragon’s first crewed test flight in 2020. Mission specialists Sandra Magnus and Rex Walheim completed the team.

Atlantis launched on July 8, 2011, and returned on July 21. With this, the U.S. lost its means of accessing the ISS via its own crewed spacecraft.

The Nine-Year Gap and the Commercial Crew Program

After the Space Shuttle’s retirement, the U.S. was forced to rely on Russia’s Soyuz spacecraft for astronaut transportation to and from the ISS. This dependency lasted nine years, far longer than initially anticipated.

Following the Shuttle’s retirement, NASA launched the Commercial Crew Program (CCP) to establish crewed space transportation by private companies, awarding contracts to SpaceX and Boeing. The program aimed to restore U.S. capability to launch astronauts from its own soil.

SpaceX achieved this goal in May 2020 with Crew Dragon’s first crewed test flight (Demo-2), successfully delivering astronauts Douglas Hurley and Robert Behnken to the ISS. This marked the first crewed launch from U.S. soil in nine years. Since then, Crew Dragon has entered regular operation and has become NASA’s primary transportation method.

In contrast, Boeing’s Starliner has faced repeated delays and technical issues. Although a crewed test mission (Boeing Crewed Flight Test) was conducted in 2024, valve malfunctions and propulsion system failures occurred in orbit, prompting NASA to return the spacecraft to Earth unmanned for safety reasons. Two astronauts were subsequently returned to Earth aboard a SpaceX spacecraft in 2025. According to The Register, NASA and Boeing still have not finalized a timeline for another crewed Starliner mission.

The Reality of Commercial Crewed Spacecraft

Fifteen years ago, the end of the Space Shuttle program was a significant turning point in U.S. space policy. The Shuttle was reusable, had a large cargo bay, and could perform diverse missions such as satellite recovery and Hubble Space Telescope servicing. However, its operational cost—approximately $450 million per launch (average, considering launch frequency)—and maintenance expenses were immense.

NASA shifted from directly managing spacecraft development to outsourcing transportation services to private companies. This decision has been partly validated by SpaceX’s success. Crew Dragon transports astronauts to the ISS at a much lower cost than the Shuttle and boasts high reliability. As of 2026, Crew Dragon handles regular rotation missions and even commercial spaceflight missions (e.g., Inspiration4, Polaris Dawn).

However, Boeing’s Starliner has failed to provide NASA with a secondary option due to prolonged technical issues and delays. Despite being contracted at the same time as SpaceX in 2014, its operational debut is over a decade late, and its first crewed flight ended incomplete. Richard Speed of The Register described it as “Boeing’s disaster capsule.” Starliner has yet to fulfill its intended role of providing redundancy.

Moreover, the capabilities once offered by the Shuttle, such as transporting large pressurized and unpressurized payloads, remain unmatched by current commercial spacecraft. Deliveries of large modules or experimental equipment to the ISS rely on unmanned cargo vehicles like Japan’s HTV, SpaceX’s Cargo Dragon, and Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus. The role of crewed spacecraft is now limited to transportation, and the Shuttle’s multifunctionality remains a loss.

Editorial Opinion

In the short term, identifying the causes of Starliner’s malfunctions and formulating a new flight plan are urgent priorities. NASA is exploring the possibility of retesting Starliner between late 2025 and 2026, but no definite timeline has been set. During this period, the U.S. remains entirely dependent on SpaceX Crew Dragon for human space transportation. Should Crew Dragon experience any issues, access to the ISS would again rely on Soyuz or future commercial spacecraft like Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser. The lack of redundancy is currently the greatest risk factor.

From a long-term perspective, the Commercial Crew Program has revealed both successes and shortcomings. Fixed-price contracts encouraged cost savings and innovation, which are commendable. However, the rationale for contracting two companies has been undermined by one becoming non-functional. The upcoming Artemis program for lunar exploration, which involves both SpaceX’s Starship and Boeing’s SLS, may face similar risks. Additionally, Starliner’s delays have highlighted the disparity in technical and organizational capabilities between traditional aerospace giants and emerging companies.

References

• “The last Space Shuttle returned to Earth 15 years ago”, by Richard Speed — The Register, 2026-07-26T08:30:00.000Z (ARR)
• Source URL: https://www.theregister.com/science/2026/07/26/the-last-space-shuttle-returned-to-earth-15-years-ago/5277279