Acceleration of VMware Exodus: Transition to IBM Mainframes Could Be Cost-Effective in Certain Cases — Gartner Analysis

Broadcom’s VMware Licensing Shake-Up is Disrupting Corporate Infrastructure Strategies

Nearly two and a half years have passed since Broadcom’s acquisition of VMware, and the sweeping changes to its licensing model continue to send shockwaves through companies reliant on the VMware ecosystem. Amid this upheaval, prominent analyst firm Gartner has presented an intriguing analysis: in certain workloads, transitioning to IBM’s mainframe could prove cheaper than remaining under VMware’s new licensing terms.

Gartner detailed this perspective in its April 2026 report titled “The State of the IBM Mainframe in 2026.” Alessandro Galimberti, Gartner’s Vice President and Analyst, told The Register that many industry buyers are comparing mainframes with modern cloud environments and finding IBM’s “big iron” to be a more advantageous choice.

Why the “Platform Power” of Mainframes is Being Reevaluated

Galimberti emphasizes the unparalleled integration capabilities of mainframes as platforms.

“It is possible to build multi-region cloud applications, but elements like data synchronization and high availability have to be constructed within the application logic,” Galimberti pointed out. “Mainframes, however, have these functionalities embedded at the platform level, shielding developers from unnecessary complexity.”

This perspective reflects a pragmatic evaluation of the architectural burdens associated with building distributed systems in cloud-native environments versus the stability offered by mainframes’ integrated frameworks. Galimberti particularly notes that mainframes are well-suited for workloads requiring consistent transactions and backward compatibility over extended periods.

Cost Advantages in Linux VM Environments with 500–700 Instances

Gartner’s analysis sheds light on scenarios where transitioning to mainframes presents significant cost advantages. According to Galimberti, IBM’s ecosystem becomes increasingly appealing for VMware users managing Linux VM environments with 500 to 700 instances.

The ability to run Linux on IBM hardware is a critical factor in this assessment. Additionally, IBM’s z/VM hypervisor enhances Linux operations, making them “superior and more enterprise-ready,” Galimberti explained.

In essence, when comparing Broadcom’s new VMware licensing costs with the transition and operational expenses of IBM mainframes, the latter emerges as a favorable option for sufficiently large Linux VM environments.

Mission-Critical Workloads Seeking Long-Term Stability

Galimberti is clear that not all applications are suitable for mainframe migration. His recommendation focuses on mission-critical applications that are unlikely to undergo significant changes over the next decade.

Such “stable, core systems” align well with the strengths of mainframes. For workloads prioritizing reliable performance and backward compatibility, sticking with a robust platform may be more rational than constantly adapting to evolving cloud-native environments.

Challenges and Risks of Mainframe Transition

However, transitioning to mainframes is not without significant challenges.

The risk of vendor lock-in is a major concern. Committing to a mainframe platform could make it difficult and costly to switch to another system in the future. Galimberti also noted that fear of lock-in might deter users from making beneficial customizations.

The overhead of cost negotiations is another issue. Moving to a mainframe “means spending more time negotiating prices and protection for renewals rather than focusing on delivering business value,” Galimberti warned.

Additionally, the continuity of skills remains a pressing challenge. Galimberti highlighted that “younger generations rarely consider careers in mainframe operations,” pointing to a potential talent drought in managing big iron systems. However, this issue could be mitigated by service providers increasing investments in mainframe programs and Linux’s presence as an open-source OS.

A “Contrarian” Strategy in the Age of Cloud Dominance

Gartner’s analysis introduces a new choice in enterprise IT, challenging the prevailing notion that cloud migration is the definitive “correct” strategy. Broadcom’s VMware acquisition and subsequent licensing changes have prompted companies to rethink their IT strategies fundamentally, ironically bringing renewed attention to what many viewed as an outdated platform.

Of course, mainframes aren’t a universal solution for all businesses. Yet for organizations managing large Linux VM environments and prioritizing long-term stability in mission-critical workloads, IBM’s big iron is becoming an increasingly viable option worth serious consideration.

The impact of Broadcom’s VMware strategy on corporate IT users may be only just beginning.

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FAQ:

Q: How has VMware’s licensing model changed under Broadcom’s ownership?
A: After acquiring VMware in late 2023, Broadcom shifted from perpetual licensing to a subscription-based model and reevaluated product bundling. These changes significantly increased licensing costs for many users, prompting them to explore alternatives.

Q: How does Linux operate on IBM mainframes?
A: IBM’s zSeries mainframes natively support Linux, with distributions like Red Hat Enterprise Linux and Ubuntu running seamlessly. Additionally, the z/VM hypervisor allows efficient virtualization of multiple Linux instances.

Q: What is the biggest risk in transitioning to mainframes?
A: The primary risk is vendor lock-in. Deep reliance on a mainframe platform can make future migration to other systems prohibitively expensive and time-consuming. Moreover, the limited pool of skilled professionals in mainframe operations poses a long-term challenge.