RAM Shortage Could Last Until 2027, Crisis in Semiconductor Supply Chain

Introduction: The “Long War” Reality Comes into View

On April 18, 2026, The Verge published a shocking article titled “RAM Shortage Could Last for Years.” Based on reports from Nikkei Asia, it revealed that even if the world’s top three memory makers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) expand their new production capacity, the forecast for the end of 2027 is that they will only be able to meet 60% of demand. SK Group’s chairman is even more pessimistic, stating, “The shortage could last until 2030.” This is not merely a temporary market fluctuation but signals the beginning of a structural crisis shaking the foundation of the AI era.

Background: Why Is the Shortage Happening Now?

Behind the RAM (DRAM) shortage, two massive forces are intertwined. First is the explosive growth in AI and machine learning demand. Data centers require enormous amounts of memory for training and inference of large language models (LLMs). NVIDIA’s GPUs are equipped with High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), and its demand is overwhelming supply. Second, the recovery of the traditional PC and smartphone market has coincided with this. Post-pandemic inventory adjustments have ended, and a rush of new model launches is underway.

Furthermore, the semiconductor supply chain itself is in a fragile state. Geopolitical risks (such as tensions around Taiwan), soaring energy prices, and a shortage of skilled technicians are delaying the construction of new factories. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have all announced massive investments, but it will take several years from actual production start-up. The factory SK opened in Cheongju in February 2026 is currently the only increase in production. New “giga fabs” are expected to come online no earlier than 2027, and possibly not until 2028 or later.

Details: Manufacturers’ Strategies and Constraints

Let’s look closely at the strategies of the three major manufacturers. Samsung is building new factories in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, and Texas, USA, with capital expenditure (CAPEX) at record levels. However, delays in technology transfer and equipment installation have been pointed out. SK Hynix, aiming not to lose its lead in the HBM sector, is expanding in Icheon, South Korea, and Wuxi, China. Micron is planning new factories in Idaho and New York, USA, receiving subsidies under the U.S. government’s CHIPS Act. However, the reality is that none of these plans will be in time for the surge in demand.

The background to SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won’s statement that “the shortage could last until 2030” lies in the uncertainty of demand forecasting. The pace of AI advancement is exceeding expectations, and there’s a possibility memory requirements will increase further. For example, next-generation AI chips are expected to more than double the memory bandwidth compared to the past, which could bring qualitative supply issues to the fore, beyond just a capacity shortage.

Impact on the Industry: A Chain of Price Hikes and Product Delays

The impact of this long-term shortage is immeasurable. First is rising prices. DRAM prices have already been on an upward trend since 2025 and could increase by 30-50% by 2027. This directly translates to manufacturing costs for PCs, smartphones, and servers, becoming a factor for price hikes for end consumers. Products requiring large memory capacities, such as gaming PCs and workstations, will see particularly sharp price increases.

Second is the delay in product releases. Manufacturers like Apple, Dell, and Lenovo are facing memory supply constraints in developing new models. For instance, next-generation AI PCs are expected to have 16GB as standard, but due to supply shortages, some models might be forced to scale down to 8GB or face launch delays. In data centers, the expansion of cloud services could slow down, potentially affecting the provision of AI-related services.

Third is the hindrance to innovation. Startups and research institutions may be unable to access the memory resources needed for training AI models, compromising their competitiveness. Small and medium-sized enterprises, in particular, face a high risk of being shut out of the market.

Future Outlook: The Path to 2030

The forecast that the shortage will last until 2030 forces structural changes in the semiconductor industry. Manufacturers are seeking solutions not just through capacity expansion, but through technological innovation. Examples include the evolution of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and the development of new memory architectures. Samsung is focusing on “3D DRAM,” a stacking technology aiming to break through the limits of traditional planar integration.

Government-level responses will also become crucial. In addition to the U.S. CHIPS Act and Europe’s semiconductor laws, countries like Japan and Korean are also introducing measures to strengthen domestic production. Amid calls for supply chain diversification, the reorganization of regional production bases will progress.

The impact on consumers will manifest as price increases in the short term, but in the long term, product design itself may change. For example, the evolution of memory-less computing or data compression technologies may accelerate. In the AI industry, research into model efficiency (AI that operates with less memory) will become even more critical.

Conclusion: Endure or Adapt?

Is the RAM shortage a “growing pain” accompanying the growth of the digital economy, or is it a persistent structural problem? Currently, the latter seems more likely. There are no signs of AI demand slowing, and manufacturers’ expansion plans are far from keeping pace with demand. The figure that only 60% of demand will be met by 2027 suggests the entire industry needs to accept a “new normal” of shortage.

Message to readers: If you are considering purchasing a PC or smartphone, acting sooner is wise. Furthermore, businesses should urgently optimize their memory usage. This crisis is not just a supply chain issue but a litmus test that demands a fundamental redesign of the infrastructure backbone of the AI era.

FAQ

Q: Why is the RAM shortage expected to last for several years? A: The main reasons are the explosive increase in AI demand and the time required to build semiconductor factories. It takes 3-5 years for new fabs to come online, and the speed of demand growth continues to outpace supply. SK Group’s chairman pointed out that the shortage could last until 2030, recognizing it as a structural problem.

Q: How will the RAM shortage affect PC and smartphone prices? A: The RAM shortage will drive up DRAM prices, leading to increased costs for final products. PC and smartphone prices could rise by 10-30%, especially for models with higher memory. Some products may also see reduced memory capacity or launch delays.

Q: What measures can average consumers take? A: Over the next few years, opting for devices with the minimum necessary memory capacity or considering upgrades to existing devices can be effective. When using cloud services, monitoring memory usage and eliminating waste can help reduce costs. In the long term, the widespread adoption of efficient AI technologies will contribute to improving the supply-demand balance.