DRAM Shortage May Persist Until 2030: The Severe Reality of AI Demand and Supply Strain

DRAM Shortage: A Structural Crisis, Not a Temporary Glitch

On April 18, 2026, it became clear that the “memory shortage” looming over the tech industry is likely to persist far longer than anticipated. According to a report by The Verge, based on investigations by Nikkei Asia, despite the world’s three major memory manufacturers (Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron) rushing to build new fabs, supply capacity is projected to meet only about 60% of demand through late 2027. Furthermore, the chairman of SK Group has even suggested the shortage could last until 2030. This is not merely a temporary supply chain disruption but a manifestation of a structural supply-demand gap triggered by the AI revolution, severely impacting the price and availability of all technology products, from smartphones to data centers.

Background: Explosive AI Demand Outpaces Supply

DRAM (Dynamic Random-Access Memory) is an essential semiconductor serving as the main memory for all computing devices. In recent years, the primary factor exploding its demand has been the rapid adoption of generative AI and Large Language Models (LLMs). Training and running AI models require vast memory capacity; for instance, the latest AI servers are equipped with several times more DRAM than traditional ones. AI-specific chips like Nvidia’s GPU accelerators also heavily utilize HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), a derivative of DRAM. This surge is further compounded by the expansion of cloud computing, the proliferation of 5G devices, and the increase in IoT devices.

On the supply side, however, severe constraints exist. Constructing a new semiconductor fab typically requires 3-5 years and massive investment (over $10 billion). While Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron each have new fab plans, aside from the facility SK opened in Cheongju in February 2026, none will be operational until 2027 or later. Moreover, risks of construction delays are high, complicated by geopolitical instability (e.g., tensions involving Taiwan), soaring raw material costs, and a shortage of skilled engineers. Industry insiders point out, “The demand curve far outstrips the supply curve, and this gap will not be easily closed.”

Impact: A Chain Reaction of Price Hikes and Product Delays

The DRAM shortage will first manifest as price increases for consumer products. PCs, smartphones, and gaming consoles all use large amounts of DRAM, so rising procurement costs are highly likely to be passed on to product prices. For example, signs of a 10-20% price increase for high-end notebook PCs and smartphones have already been observed since the latter half of 2025. Additionally, manufacturers may limit memory capacity or prioritize products with stable supply, risking delays in new product launches or inventory shortages.

The impact on industrial applications is even more severe. Data centers require massive amounts of DRAM to provide AI services, and the shortage could delay expansion plans, potentially leading to increased cloud service prices or performance degradation. The automotive industry is also affected, as the latest autonomous driving systems and in-car infotainment require high-performance memory, which could hinder EV (electric vehicle) development schedules. Furthermore, profit margins for semiconductor manufacturers may fluctuate due to the imbalance in supply and demand, increasing uncertainty for investors.

Industry Response and Technological Innovation

To address the shortage, major manufacturers are fully focused on expanding production capacity. Samsung is introducing advanced processes at its Pyeongtaek fab in Korea, SK Hynix is accelerating HBM4 mass production, and Micron is building new fabs in the United States and Japan. However, these are all medium- to long-term solutions and are unlikely to ease supply-demand tensions in the short term. Some experts also recommend improving recycling technologies and developing more efficient memory architectures. For example, new interfaces like CXL (Compute Express Link) could help mitigate the shortage’s impact by promoting sharing and efficiency of memory resources.

Geopolitical factors cannot be ignored. The US-China semiconductor hegemony competition is fragmenting supply chains and increasing risks associated with reliance on specific regions. While Western countries are offering subsidies to boost domestic semiconductor production, this could also cause delays in fab construction. Industry bodies are calling for “the urgent construction of coordinated international supply networks,” and discussions at the WTO (World Trade Organization) level are becoming more active.

Future Outlook: The Road to 2030

The SK Group chairman’s prediction of 2030 might be overly pessimistic, but it highlights the structural nature of the problem. While advancements in DRAM technology (e.g., 3D stacking) are increasing capacity per chip, it will take time for this to outpace the growth in demand. Industry analysts predict that “new supply capacity will fully come online after 2028, gradually improving the supply-demand balance,” but warn that “if AI demand exceeds expectations, the shortage could last even longer.”

Consumers and businesses need to prepare for this prolonged shortage. Revisiting plans for purchasing PCs or servers and adopting software that optimizes memory usage efficiency could be effective. Moreover, companies diversifying their supply chains may be able to reduce risk. For the tech industry as a whole, this DRAM shortage symbolizes both the opportunities and challenges brought by digitalization and will significantly influence the direction of future semiconductor investment and technological development.

FAQ

Q: Why is the DRAM shortage becoming so severe now? A: The biggest factor is the explosive increase in AI demand. The proliferation of generative AI and LLMs has ballooned memory demand for data centers to several times its previous levels. Meanwhile, constructing new fabs takes time, and supply cannot keep up. Additionally, demand from other sectors (PCs, mobile, automotive) remains robust, widening the supply-demand gap.

Q: Which specific products will be affected by the DRAM shortage? A: Nearly all electronic products will be affected. Price increases and supply delays are expected especially for PCs, smartphones, tablets, and gaming consoles. Data centers and cloud services will also be impacted, potentially leading to increased costs or performance limitations for AI-related services. The effects will also ripple into automotive electrical systems and industrial equipment.

Q: Are there technical solutions to resolve the DRAM shortage? A: In the long term, bringing new fabs online is key. On the technological front, improvements in the efficiency of high-bandwidth memory like HBM, memory sharing via new interfaces like CXL, and advances in recycling technology are anticipated. Furthermore, optimizing memory usage through software is also crucial. A combination of these approaches could help mitigate the impact of the shortage.